{"id":1416,"date":"2018-03-12T00:25:21","date_gmt":"2018-03-11T16:25:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.kate1138.com\/?p=1416"},"modified":"2021-01-10T18:39:44","modified_gmt":"2021-01-10T10:39:44","slug":"sinica-podcast-39-carl-minzner-%e8%ae%b0%e5%bd%95","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/?p=1416","title":{"rendered":"Sinica Podcast 3\/9 Carl Minzner \u8bb0\u5f55"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u6574\u7684transcription \/ \u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002\uff08\u4e4b\u524d\u8bd5\u56fetranscribe 19\u5927\u90a3\u4e00\u96c6\uff0c\u542c\u5199\u6bd4\u6211\u60f3\u7684\u8981\u7d2f\u597d\u591a\u554a\u3002\u8ffd\u6c42\u5b8c\u6574\u4e0d\u5982\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684app\uff1f\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u542c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u89c9\u5f97\u918d\u9190\u704c\u9876\u6240\u4ee5\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e00\u4e0b\u5427\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5609\u5bbeCarl Minzner\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e66 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/End-Era-Authoritarian-Revival-Undermining\/dp\/0190672080\/\">End of an Era: How China&#8217; Authoritarian Revival Is Undermining Its Rise<\/a>. \uff08\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0bAmazon\uff0c\u4e66\u662f2\u67081\u65e5\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e5\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u7ed9\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u9020\u52bf\uff08<\/p>\n<p>\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u4f60\u4ece\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6559\u6388\u5230\u5199\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u60f3\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u60f3\u4e86\u5341\u5230\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u5427\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38specific\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684norm\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5386\u53f2\u6e0a\u6e90\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u8fd9\u4e48\u95ee\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u597d\u591a\u88ab\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u5609\u5bbe\uff0c\u5bf9\u5982\u4eca\u7684illiberal turn\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u540c\u610f\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u662f2008\u52302009\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5230vicious crack down on human rights lawyers, big waves of tightening internet, \u5b5f\u5efa\u67f1\u5f00\u59cb\u8bf4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u6709\u5916\u56fd\u654c\u5bf9\u52bf\u529b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u3002\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ece1989\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aI would say there were several crucial inflection points. \uff08\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u65b0\u8bcd\uff091989\u5e74\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c2003\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u62d0\u70b9\u3002\u5f53\u5c40\u5173\u6ce8public interest lawyers\uff0c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u65e9\u57282005\u30012006\u5e74\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a1989\u5e74\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u62d0\u70b9\u3002\u81ea\u90a3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cdeeper political, institutional reform is taken off the table. \u90a3\u4e4b\u540e\u8fd8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6539\u9769\u6bd4\u5982\u4e61\u9547\u9009\u4e3e\u3001public interest law\u3001ministrative legal reforms\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u662f\u524d\u8fdb\u4e00\u6b65\u540e\u9000\u4e00\u6b65\u751a\u81f3\u4e24\u6b65\u3002never fully take off.<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1aKaiser\u548c\u6211\u7ecf\u5e38\u5f00\u73a9\u7b11\u8bf4\u80e1\u6e29\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u67e5\u4e86wiki: 2002\u52302012\uff09\u662fgolden era of Chinese liberalism\u3002\u6211\u4fe9\u90fd\u8ba4\u4e3a2000s\u5e74\u95f4\uff0c911\u4e4b\u540e\u30012008\u5e74\u897f\u85cfriot\u4e4b\u524d\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\uff0cweak collective leadership\u9020\u5c31\u4e86\u4e00\u6bb5\u6bd4\u8f83\u5f00\u660e\u7684\u65f6\u671f\uff08\u4e0d\u7ba1\u662f\u6545\u610f\u4e3a\u4e4b\u8fd8\u662f\u65e0\u80fd\u4e0d\u4f5c\u4e3a\uff09\u3002\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u53cd\u6b63\u6211\u662f\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6cd5\u5236\u3001\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684public discussion\u3002\u4f60\u662f\u5426\u540c\u610f\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u5f88\u540c\u610f\u3002\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u56e0\u7d20\u5728\u8d77\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u662f\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u51b3\u5b9a\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u60f3\u4e8b\u4e8b\u90fd\u7ba1\u3002\u8fd9\u79cdinattention\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u7269\u5f00\u59cb\u4ea7\u751f\u4e86\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u72ec\u7acb\u7535\u5f71\u3001\u4e00\u4e9bmore obscure areas of acdemic work\u3002\u3002\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u6d3b\u52a8\u6709\u4e86\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u786e\u60f3\u8981\u6cbb\u7406\u4e00\u4e9babuse of power\uff0c1990s\u548c2000s\u65e9\u671f\u60f3\u8981\u6539\u9769\uff0c\u5c1d\u8bd5\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e8b\u7269\u6bd4\u5982\u4e61\u9547\u9009\u4e3e\u3001\u52a0\u5f3a\u6cd5\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4e00\u65e6\u4eba\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u5229\u7528\u8fd9\u4e9b\u7a7a\u95f4push the line\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u6709\u70b9\u62c5\u5fc3\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5c31\u56de\u6765\u628a\u4e4b\u524d\u90fd\u6539\u9769undo\u6389\u3002checks emerge in each of the areas I looked at.<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u3002\u3002\u3002what brought it (the authoritarian) back (after 2008)?<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6b63\u56e0\u4e3apolitical reform\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u88ab\u62ff\u8d70\u4e86\uff0c\u5f53\u4e2d\u5171\u9047\u5230crisis\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u5f88\u5c11\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u53ea\u80fddouble down on security apparatus\u3002\u5728rising corruption\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6ca1\u6709\u7b2c\u4e09\u65b9\u76d1\u7763\u6216\u8005\u522b\u7684\u529e\u6cd5\uff0c\u6e10\u6e10\u5730\u5c31\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u50cf\u5468\u6c38\u5eb7\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6240\u4ee5\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662f\u4e60\u4e4b\u524d\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\u7684\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u8bf4\u8bf4\u80e1\u6e29\u7684\u7b2c\u4e8c\u4e2a\u4e94\u5e74\uff1f\u6211\u4eec\u597d\u50cf\u662f\u4ece\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u5f00\u59cb\u6709\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u3002\u662f\u54ea\u4e9b\u56e0\u7d20\u5bfc\u81f4\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u5019\u5c31\u5f00\u59cb\u4e86\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6709\u597d\u591a\u56e0\u7d20\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u5a92\u4f53\uff0c\u7279\u522b\u662fSNS\uff08\u5fae\u535a\uff09\uff0cexplosive growth\u3002\u521a\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u8fd9\u88ab\u770b\u4f5c\u662fmarginal area\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5e76\u4e0d\u5173\u5fc3\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5728\u80e1\u7684\u672b\u671f\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u6e29\u5dde\u52a8\u8f66\u4e8b\u6545\uff08\u5728\u5fae\u535a\u4e0a\u88ab\u6fc0\u70c8\u8ba8\u8bba\uff09\uff0cSNS\u4e0a\u51fa\u73b0\u4e86\u5173\u6ce8\u4eba\u6570\u5f88\u591a\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u7ea2\u4eba\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\u5ffd\u7136\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u6210\u4e3a\u4e86\u4e2d\u5171\u9700\u8981\u7ba1\u5236\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u3002\u8fd9\u5c31\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u63a7\u5236\u52a0\u5f3a\uff0c\u7136\u540e\u5bfc\u81f4\u4e86\u5bf9\u6587\u5316\u7684\u7ba1\u5236\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\uff0cyou can see the growth of the security apparatus under \u5468\u6c38\u5eb7\u3002that begins to bloom significantly over the same period of time\u3002\u3010\u5317\u4eac\u5965\u8fd02008\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u4e16\u535a\u4f1a2010\u5f00\u59cb\u3002\u6bcf\u5929\u88ab\u5730\u94c1\u5b89\u68c0\u5f04\u5f97\u5fc3\u795e\u4e0d\u5b81\u7684\u6211\u6df1\u6709\u4f53\u4f1a\u3011\u4e2d\u5171\u5f00\u59cb\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u4f9d\u8d56security forces\u6765\u8fce\u6218stability challenges\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1aCarl, \u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u63d0\u5230\u8a00\u8bba\u7ba1\u5236\u3001\u5bf9\u4eba\u6743\u5f8b\u5e08\u7684\u6293\u6355\u3001\u5bf9\u5404\u79cddessent\u7684\u538b\u5236\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u901a\u5e38\u662f\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u4eba\u4f1a\u4e0eauthoritarian revival\u8054\u7cfb\u8d77\u6765\u7684\u5185\u5bb9\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\u91cc\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u4e9b\u4e00\u822c\u4eba\u4e0d\u4f1a\u76f4\u63a5\u8054\u60f3\u5230\u7684\u65b9\u9762\uff0c\u4e00\u4e9bcover\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8bb0\u8005\u548c\u5b66\u8005\u7f3a\u4e4f\u91cd\u89c6\u7684\u5730\u65b9\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u51fa\u4e24\u4e2a\u65b9\u9762\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u662fideological focus on Xi himself. \u7b2c\u4e8c\u662f\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u68a6\u7684\u5f3a\u8c03\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5f3a\u8c03\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u4e24\u4e2a\u4f60\u90fd\u8bf4\u8bf4\u5427\uff01<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1apersonality cult\u8fd8\u662f\u5f88\u660e\u663e\u7684\u554a\uff0c\u4e0d\u8fc7\u4f60\u90fd\u8bf4\u8bf4\u5427\uff01\uff08<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u597d\u90a3\u6211\u4eec\u5148\u8bf4\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u68a6\u3002\u4f5c\u4e3a\u5bf9\u6bd4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u53ef\u4ee5\u5148\u60f3\u60f31970\u5e74\u7684\u6279\u5b54\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u3002\u90a3\u65f6\u4e2d\u5171\u81ea\u8eab\u53d1\u8d77\u4e86\u6253\u51fb\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002\u3002\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u5171\u5f00\u59cb\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u628a\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u5f62\u8c61\u6295\u5c04\u5230\u4e2d\u56fd\u4f20\u7edf\u4e0a\u3002\u7ec6\u60f3\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u8fd9\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e2d\u5171\u660e\u767d\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u7684ideology\u65e9\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f\u5927\u591a\u6570\u6c11\u4f17\u6240\u76f8\u4fe1\u7684\u4e86\u3002\u5bf9\u4e2d\u5171\u6765\u8bf4\uff0c\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u4fe1\u4ef0\u662f\u4e2a\u8d1f\u62c5\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u65e0\u6cd5\u8bf4\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u4e0d\u4ee3\u8868\u5171\u4ea7\u4e3b\u4e49\u4e86\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u5171\u6e10\u6e10\u632a\u5230\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u4e00\u8fb9\u3002\u3002\u3002\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5f00\u59cb\u5bf9\u5916\u5f00\u653e\u3002\u9093\u5c0f\u5e73\u7684\u540d\u8a00\u662f\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6709\u82cd\u8747\u98de\u8fdb\u6765\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8981\u5f00\u7a97\u3002\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u5171\u53d1\u73b0\uff0c\u8fdb\u6765\u7684ideology\uff0c\u6bd4\u5982\u897f\u65b9\u6c11\u4e3b\u3001underground Christian house churches(?)\u3002\u4e2d\u5171\u5982\u4eca\u53d1\u73b0\u4ed6\u4eec\u9700\u8981ideological shield\u3002\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u6c11\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u5728\u5bf9\u5916\u5f00\u653e\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u95ee\uff0c\u90a3\u6211\u4eec\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48\uff1f\u4e16\u754c\u5404\u5730\u7684\u4eba\u90fd\u60f3\u8981\u4e3a\u81ea\u5df1\u7684heritage\u9a84\u50b2\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u4e00\u62cd\u5373\u5408\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u9009\u62e9\u4e86\u7528\u4f20\u7edf\u6765\u62b5\u6321\u897f\u65b9\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u7684\u5165\u4fb5\u3002\u3002\u3002\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5bf9\u4f20\u7edf\u7684\u5f3a\u8c03\u4f1a\u8ba9\u5bf9\u5916\u5f00\u653e\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u53d7\u963b\uff0c\u5b66\u672f\u4ea4\u6d41\u4e5f\u4f1a\u51cf\u5c11\u3002\u3010\u5b66\u8005\u89d2\u5ea6\u554a\u3011<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u4e2d\u5171\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u6839\u57fa\u662f\u4e94\u56db\u8fd0\u52a8\u3001\u9664\u56db\u65e7\u3002\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u5982\u4eca\u5229\u7528\u4f20\u7edf\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u662f\u5f88cynical\u7684\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u5728\u60c5\u611f\u4e0a\u771f\u7684\u8ba4\u540c\u4f20\u7edf\uff1f\u3010\u8c0e\u8bdd\u8bf4\u7740\u8bf4\u7740\u5c31\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e86\u5457\u3002\u7279\u522b\u662f\u8fd9\u8fd8\u662f\u90a3\u4e48\u717d\u7684\u8c0e\u8bdd\u3011<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u8fd9\u662f\u4e2a\u597d\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5728\u6700\u9ad8\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u5708\u5b50\u91cc\uff0c\u8fd9\u8fd8\u4ecd\u7136\u662f\u4e2a\u7591\u95ee\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u662f\u9769\u547d\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u3002\u4ed6\u4eec\u4ece\u5c0f\u5e94\u8be5\u662f\u4fe1\u4ef0\u9769\u547d\u7684\u3002\u7136\u800c\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u5171\u65e9\u5c31\u4e0d\u662f1930\u5e74\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u4e86\u3002they are a ruling party well into multiple decades of rule&#8230;. Their identities are more similar to ruling dynasty. in fact if you are looking for an interesting example of that, you really should go to the \u590d\u5174\u4e4b\u8def exhibit. Xi&#8217;s first act&#8230; was to take the\u00a0politburo standing committee to that. The depiction of the Chinese history is much different from what existed 10 or 15 years ago. \u3010\u8fd9\u91cc\u4e0d\u592a\u660e\u767d\u610f\u601d\u662f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c55\u89c8\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\uff0c\u548c15\u5e74\u524d\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u4ecb\u7ecd\u5386\u53f2\u7684\u5c55\u89c8\u4f1a\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u8bf4\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u5c55\u89c8\u5c55\u51fa\u4e86\u6700\u8fd115\u5e74\u7684\u5386\u53f2\uff0c\u548c\u771f\u5b9e\u7684\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aanything else is historical\u00a0nihilism.<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aexactly<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u90a3\u4e48\u518d\u6765\u8bf4\u8bf4personality cult\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u662f\u554a\u6765\u8bf4\u8bf4\uff0cKaiser\uff0c\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u6211\u8981\u5bf9\u4f60\u6311\u523a\u3002\u51e0\u5e74\u524d\u6211\u548c\u4f60\u6709\u8fc7\u4e89\u8bba\uff0c\u662f\u4e0d\u662f\u6709incipient personality cult building. Let&#8217;s hear Carl&#8217;s view on this.<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aThe term I always use is &#8216;with&#8217; a cult of personality. \u56e0\u4e3a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u73b0\u5728\u6211\u4eec\u79bb\u6bdb\u7684\u90a3\u79cd\u4e2a\u4eba\u5d07\u62dc\u8fd8\u5f88\u8fdc\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u72b6\u6001\u662f\uff0c\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11state media focus\u5728Xi\u548c\u5176\u4ed6\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u8eab\u4e0a\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\u6709\u4e9b\u4ebause his image in a particular way\u3002\u3002\u3002there are art student that are taught to paint his pictures&#8230; \u8fd9\u4e9b\u548cHu\u548cJiang\u5f88\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u3002but you don&#8217;t want to go over the board and say (it&#8217;s same as Mao)\u3002\u3010\u4f60\u8fd8\u60f3\u600e\u6837\u3002\u3002\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1athe &#8216;with&#8217; is getting fairly strong&#8230; it&#8217;s getting stinky&#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aCarl, the central argument to your book is that the authoritarian revival will fraught China&#8217;s rise. \u4f60\u8bf4\u7684rise\u662f\u6307\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u662f\u6307\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\uff0c\u8fd8\u662f\u56fd\u9645\u5730\u4f4d\u3002\u3002\u3002\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6700\u8fd1\u56db\u5341\u5e74\uff08\u6539\u9769\u9636\u6bb5\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u822c\u8bf4\u662fmodern China history\uff0c\u8fd9\u6bb5\u65f6\u671f\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5728\u56fd\u9645\u4e0arise\u4e86\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5982\u679c\u4ec5\u770b\u56fd\u5185\u7684\u8bdd\uff0cprosperous, relatively stable&#8230; that&#8217;s founded on a certain set of political assumptions. Partially institutionalized political norms of the late 1970s or early 1980s&#8230; \u6211\u770b\u6765\u5c31\u597d\u50cf\u662f\u4e00\u4e2ajanga set\uff08\u5c31\u662f\u6728\u6761\u642d\u8d77\u6765\uff0c\u62bd\u6389\u6728\u5757\u770b\u8c01\u62bd\u5012\u4e86\u7684\u6e38\u620f\uff09\u7684\u57fa\u7840\u88ab\u6e10\u6e10\u62ff\u8d70\u4e86\uff0c\u8ba9\u4eba\u62c5\u5fc3\u3002\u6211\u4e0d\u89c9\u5f97\u62ff\u8d70\u90a3\u4e9b\u653f\u6cbb\u7a33\u5b9a\u7684\u5047\u8bbe\u7684\u540c\u65f6\u4f1a\u6ca1\u6709\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u4f60\u8bf4\u5f97\u592a\u597d\u4e86\u3002\u6211\u524d\u51e0\u5929\u88abPRI\u8282\u76ee\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u5c31\u6ca1\u6709\u60f3\u5230janga set\u7684\u6bd4\u55bb\u3002\u4f60\u8bf4\u7684political norm\u592a\u5bf9\u4e86\u3002\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u671f\u6211\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u628a\u653f\u6cbb\u72af\u5904\u6b7b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u3002\u3002\u867d\u7136\u4ecd\u7136\u662fauthoritarian\uff0c\u4f46\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u8bf4\u662fauthoritarian lite\u3002\u3002\u3002\u3010\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u51fa\u7ed3\u8bba\u8bf4\uff0c\u6839\u672c\u6ca1\u6709\u4ec0\u4e48lite\uff0c\u6216\u8005\u8bf4lite\u4e0d\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7a33\u5b9a\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u9769\u4f1a\u5012\u56de\u53bb\u3002\u3011<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aAbsolutely\u30021980\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u9886\u5bfc\u4ebapersonally scarred by the excesses of the Maoist era, implemented these things. \u56e0\u4e3a\u4ed6\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u5982\u679c\u653f\u6cbb\u4f53\u7cfb\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8fd9\u4e9b\uff08\u89c4\u5219\uff1f\uff09\u7684\u8bdd\u540e\u679c\u5f88\u53ef\u6015\u3002\u4e94\u516d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u548c\u4e03\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u521d\uff0c\u653f\u6cbb\u662f\u5f88\u8840\u8165\u3002\u3002\u3002We are not there yet, but&#8230; you have to think how much worse it can get.<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u6211\u8fd8\u60f3\u95ee\u4e00\u4e0b\u5173\u4e8e\u53cd\u8150\u8fd0\u52a8\u3002how does it fit into the authoritarian revival.<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6709\u4e9b\u4eba\u8bf4this is only about getting rid of his political rivals\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u79cd\u89c2\u70b9\u662f\u4e0d\u5bf9\u7684\u3002there is an element of it\u3002Xi actually believes in the idea of making the Party the ruling force within Chinese society, something that people can believe in. You have to suppress at least the manifestations of corruption in order to maintain the legitimacy. \u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u987a\u4fbf\u7279\u522b\u9488\u5bf9political rival\u662f\u5f88\u53ef\u80fd\u7684\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd8\u6709\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u4e00\u5c42\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u60f3\u8981remodel the\u00a0bureaucracy\uff0c\u4f60\u9700\u8981\u7ef4\u6301\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684insecurity\uff0c\u8fd9\u4f7f\u5f97\u4eba\u4eec\u66f4\u52a0\u542c\u547d\u3002\u5f53\u4eba\u4eec\u6709\u70b9\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u4f1a\u66f4\u52a0\u9075\u547d\u3002\u8fd9\u4e5f\u662f\u4ed6\u4e0b\u8fbeI am in charge\u4fe1\u53f7\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u5173\u4e8e\u53d6\u6d88\u8fde\u4efb\u9650\u5236\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u89c9\u5f97\u5b83\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u53d1\u751f\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u8fd8\u662f\u9707\u60ca\u4e86\u3002Carl\uff0c\u4f60\u80af\u5b9a\u4e0d\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u9707\u60ca\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\u7684\u5b8c\u7f8e\u7ed3\u5c40\u554a\u3002Jeremy\uff0c\u4f60\u8bb0\u4e0d\u8bb0\u5f97\u6211\u4eec\u5f53\u65f6\u91c7\u8bbf\u4e86May\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u662f\u7684\uff0c\u521a\u91c7\u8bbf\u5b8c\uff0c\u4e8c\u80ce\u653f\u7b56\u5c31\u653e\u51fa\u6765\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u5b9a\u662f\u6697\u4e2d\u534f\u8c03\u597d\u6765\u5356\u4e66\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u662f\u554a\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5df2\u7ecf\u770b\u89c1\u5f88\u4e45\u5b83\u7684\u8d70\u5411\u4e86\u3002\u53bb\u5e74\u79cb\u592919\u5927\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u53d1\u73b0\u6ca1\u6709\u660e\u663e\u7684\u63a5\u73ed\u4eba\uff1b\u7136\u540e\u6211\u4eec\u53c8\u770b\u5230xi\u601d\u60f3\u88ab\u5199\u8fdb\u4e86\u515a\u7ae0\u3002These are clear signals. \u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u592a\u4e86\u89e3\u7684\u4eba\u4f1a\u89c9\u5f97\u201cXi\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4ec0\u4e48\u9b3c\uff1f\u201d\u4f46\u662f\u201c\u4fee\u5baa\u53d6\u6d88\u8fde\u4efb\u9650\u5236\u201d\u5bf9\u666e\u901a\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u6765\u8bf4\u90fd\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u662f\u4e00\u4ef6\u5927\u4e8b\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u9707\u60ca\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u53ef\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u5173\u6ce8\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e13\u5bb6\u4e5f\u89c9\u5f97\u9707\u60ca\u5427\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u548c\u6211\u4ea4\u8c08\u8fc7\u7684\u5f88\u591a\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u3002\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4chinachange.org\u7684\u4f5c\u8005Mo Zhixu\uff0c\u4ed6\u5199\u9053\uff1aThe basic assumption about China&#8217;s politics and economy, and about the future of Xi and the prospects of reform have been punctured by this development. There is now no immediate prospects for change\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u662f\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u4fee\u5baa\u6d88\u606f\u4e00\u51fa\uff0c\u5927\u5bb6\u90fd\u4e00\u7247\u54c0\u53f9\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u8fd9\u4e2a\u6d88\u606funsurprising\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u6709\u51e0\u4e2a\u4e2d\u56fd\u5b66\u751f\u8fd9\u6837\u8ddf\u6211\u8bf4\uff1a\u6211\u4eec\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u4f53\u5236\u662f\u72ec\u88c1\u7684\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u5e76\u6ca1\u6709\u7687\u5e1d\u3002\u4ece\u8f9b\u4ea5\u9769\u547d\u5f00\u59cb\u6211\u4eec\u6e10\u6e10\u6446\u8131\u4e86\u5e1d\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u5ffd\u7136\u597d\u50cf\u8981\u6709\u7687\u5e1d\u4e86\uff0c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u662f\u4ed6\u4eec\u9707\u60ca\u7684\u539f\u56e0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u73b0\u5728\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u5173\u4e8eengagement with China\u7684\u8ba8\u8bba\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8bf4\uff0c\u89c9\u5f97engage with China\u53ef\u4ee5\u4fc3\u4f7f\u4ed6\u4eec\u53d8\u6210democracy\u3002\u7684\u786e\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u662f\u4e0d\u5207\u5b9e\u9645\u7684\u5929\u771f\u3002\u4f60\u89c9\u4e0d\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662fstraw man\uff1f\uff08\u80a1\u6c9f\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0bstraw man: \u5c31\u662f\u5077\u6362\u8bdd\u9898\uff09<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aI&#8217;m conflicted on this question of engagement. \u4e00\u90e8\u5206\u6211\u5fc3\u91cc\u60f3\uff0cwhat would you expect instead\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u6211\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u662f\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u7f8e\u56fd\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e13\u5bb6\u548c\u5546\u4e1a\u5bb6\uff0c\u652f\u6301\u548c\u4e2d\u56fdengage\uff0c\u6700\u8fd1\u51e0\u5e74soured on it. Could the US \/ US companies have done anything different? Would not engaging make things different?<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u73b0\u5728\u56de\u8fc7\u5934\u53bb\u770b\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u5f88\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u30021990\u5e74\u4ee3\uff0c\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u5185\u90e8\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u60f3\u8981\u6539\u9769\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u653f\u5e9c\u3002\u8fd9\u4e9b\u60f3\u8981\u6539\u9769\u7684\u4eba\u5e76\u4e0d\u662f\u5728\u6302\u7f8a\u5934\u5356\u72d7\u8089\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u5173\u952e\u662f\u5982\u4eca\u4e2d\u56fd\u672c\u8eab\u548c\u90a3\u65f6\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u4e86\u3002\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u7f8e\u56fd\u81ea\u8eab\u4e5f\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u6539\u53d8\u3002\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u8bf4\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u4e0d\u8be5engage\u7684\uff0c\u8ba4\u4e3aengagement would be a failure&#8230; I&#8217;m not sold on that. \u6211\u89c9\u5f97Party\u5185\u90e8\u6709\u5f88\u591atension as to which direction it should go. It turns out to have gone a different direction than many of us would have hoped.<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aJeremy, you asked about whether it&#8217;s a straw man&#8217;s claim to say proponents of engagement really thought they were going to become like us. Nobody thought that! Maybe a tiny number of people. Most people thought it was going to begin a process of nudging China in a direction of to become a more open more participate&#8230; Nobody thought they were going to become a full fledged democracy.<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u4e0d\u662f\u5427\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u73b0\u5728\u4ecd\u7136\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u8ba4\u4e3a\uff0c\u5047\u5982\u4ed6\u4eec\u4e0d\u518d\u7f51\u7edc\u7ba1\u5236\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u5c31\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f97liberal\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u597d\u5427\u7684\u786e\u6709\u3002\u53e6\u5916\uff0cwhy give up now\uff1f\u4f60\u770b\u770b\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff08\u8d77\u7801\u4e0a\u5468\u65e5\u4e4b\u524d\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\uff09\uff0c\u548c1978\u5e74\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6cd5\u5236\u3001personal liberty\u3001economical liberty\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5404\u65b9\u9762\u90fd\u8fdb\u6b65\u4e86\u8bb8\u591a\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u9700\u8981\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u662f\uff0cyou definitely sense the mood turning negative in the US as well. \u6211\u62c5\u5fc3\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u4f1a\u5174\u8d77\u53ea\u8981\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u5c31\u662f\u4e0d\u597d\u7684\u7684\u601d\u7ef4\u5b9a\u52bf\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4f1a\u88ab\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u80c1\u8bba\u5229\u7528\u5417\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u5199\u4e66\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u5f88\u5c0f\u5fc3\u3002\u3002\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u9700\u8981\u63d0\u9192\u5927\u5bb6China as a state\u548c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5927\u4e0d\u76f8\u540c\u3002\u5c31\u548cTrump administration\u548c\u5404\u79cd\u7f8e\u56fd\u4eba\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u4e00\u6837\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u8fd8\u60f3\u8bf4\u8bf4\u5173\u4e8e\u4f20\u7edf\u6587\u5316\u7684\u5f3a\u8c03\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f60\u597d\u50cf\u6ca1\u6709\u8bf4which is the cause which is the effect.<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u8fd9\u91cc\u6709\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff0c\u4e00\u4e2a\u662fwhat is the Party doing\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u4e00\u4e2a\u662f\u6c11\u4f17\u7684\u53cd\u5e94\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aexactly\uff0c\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u56e0\u54ea\u4e2a\u662f\u679c\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e24\u4ef6\u4e8b\u662f\u76f8\u8f85\u76f8\u6210\u7684\u3002\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u672c\u8eab\u5bf9\u81ea\u8eab\u6587\u5316\u60f3\u8981\u611f\u5230\u9a84\u50b2\uff0c\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u6211\u4eec\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u9700\u8981\u82b1\u90a3\u4e48\u591a\u65f6\u95f4\u5b66\u82f1\u8bed\uff1b\u540c\u65f6\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u60f3\u8981\u4e3b\u5bfc\u8fce\u5408\u4eba\u4eec\u7684\u601d\u60f3\uff0c\u4e00\u65b9\u9762\u8fd9\u79cd\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u53c8\u5bf9\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u76ee\u7684\u6709\u597d\u5904\u3002They play well into one another. \u5112\u5bb6\u5b66\u8005\u6216\u8005\u4f5b\u6559\u4eba\u58eb\uff0c\u4ed6\u4eec\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u5c31\u53d8\u591a\u4e86\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u4f60\u5728\u4e66\u91cc\u8ba9\u8bfb\u8005\u7ad9\u5728xi\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u60f3\u4ed6\u6709\u9650\u7684\u9009\u62e9\u3002\u3002\u3002\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u7ed3\u8bba\u8bf4\uff0c\u53cd\u8150\u3001\u7834\u574f\u7ee7\u627f\u4eba\u4f20\u7edf\u3001\u96c6\u4e2d\u6743\u529b\u3001\u717d\u52a8\u7231\u56fd\u6c11\u65cf\u60c5\u7eea\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e9b\u90fd\u662fxi\u8fbe\u5230\u76ee\u7684\u5fc5\u8981\u7684\u624b\u6bb5\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\u6709\u8fd9\u6837\u4e00\u5c42\u5bf9xi\u7684empathy\u5f88\u5389\u5bb3\u3002Can you channel Xi here and explain what the world looks like through his eyes?<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u4e5f\u60f3\u5f3a\u8c03\u4e00\u4e0b\u6211\u5bf9\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u91cc\u7ad9\u5728Xi\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u60f3\u95ee\u9898\u8fd9\u4e00\u70b9\u5f88\u8d5e\u8d4f\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\uff0c\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u8def\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u505a\u5f97\u4e0d\u591f\u591a\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u8c22\u8c22\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u79cd\u601d\u8def\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2d\u5171\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u7ea2\u4e8c\u4ee3\uff0c\u4e00\u6b65\u4e00\u6b65\u722c\u4e0a\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\uff0c\u8fd9\u4e2a\u7cfb\u7edf\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u6709\u70b9\u8150\u673d\u4e86\u3002\u4f60\u53c8\u89c9\u5f97Party\u6709historical mandate\u8981\u5e26\u9886\u4e2d\u56fd\u8fbe\u5230\u67d0\u79cd\u76ee\u7684\u3002\u4f60\u53d1\u73b0\u4f60\u5468\u56f4\u6709\u5f88\u591a\u653f\u654c\u3002\u90a3\u4e48\u4f60\u8981\u600e\u4e48\u7740\u624b\u505a\u4e8b\uff1f\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\u6211\u4eec\u4e5f\u8bb8\u53ef\u4ee5\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u4e9b\u6253\u51fb\u8584\u7199\u6765\u548c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6218\u7565\u6027\u7684\u4e3e\u52a8\uff0c\u96c6\u4e2d\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u6743\u529b\u3002\u4f60\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8fc7\u7a0b\u4e2d\u6811\u654c\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u7fa4\u4f17\u4e2d\u53c8\u6709\u522b\u7684challenge\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u770b\u5230\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u6ee1\u8a00\u8bba\uff0c\u4f60\u4f1a\u62c5\u5fc3\u5e95\u5c42\u5e72\u90e8\u505a\u4e0d\u597d\u3002\u4f60\u770b\u5230\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e5f\u6709\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f60\u53c8\u60f3\u8981\u8c03\u6574\u519b\u4e8b\u3002\u3002\u3002\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u8981\u4eceXi\u7684\u89d2\u5ea6\u53bb\u60f3\u624d\u80fdmake sense\u3002\u4f60\u53bb\u60f3what options are open to Xi. \u4f60\u770b\u5230\u4fc4\u56fd\u662f\u4e2a\u5931\u8d25\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u4f60\u63d0\u5230\u4e86\u4fc4\u56fd\u6211\u60f3\u95ee\u53e6\u4e00\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u5916\u754c\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u5bf9\u4ed6\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u5927\u5417\uff1f\u6bd4\u5982\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97Xi\u4e0d\u9700\u8981\u770b\u963f\u62c9\u4f2f\u4e4b\u6625\uff08\u4ed6\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u89c1\uff09\uff0c\u4ed6\u770b\u52301989\u5e74\uff0c\u770b\u5230\u4e1c\u6b27\u7684\u653f\u53d8\u3002\u7f8e\u56fd\u628a\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u90fd\u770b\u6210\u662fnatural progression of liberalism\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5171\u515a\u9886\u5bfc\u5982Xi\u770b\u5230\u7684\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e2a\u6559\u8bad\u9700\u8981\u5438\u53d6\u3002those are the exact paths we don&#8217;t want to walk down. \u90a3\u4e9b\u4e0d\u4ec5\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u5171\u4ea7\u515a\u7684\u4e0b\u53f0\uff0c\u8fd8\u5f15\u53d1\u4e86\u793e\u4f1a\u4e0d\u7a33\u5b9a\u3002\u3002\u90fd\u662f\u4ed6\u4e0d\u60f3\u770b\u5230\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aAnd what about the populist and nationalist uprising of 2016? how does he look at the world in the time of Brexit and Trump?<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u540c\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u4ed6\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u4f53\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u3002\u3002\u3002\uff08Kaiser\uff1apatting themselves on the back\uff09<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6709\u4e00\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u96c6\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u91cc\uff0c\u53ea\u8981\u5141\u8bb8\u4ed6\u4eec\u7684\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\uff0c\u4eba\u5747GDP\u5230\u4e86\u4e00\u5b9a\u7a0b\u5ea6\u4e4b\u540e\uff0c\u58ee\u5927\u7684\u4e2d\u4ea7\u9636\u7ea7\u4e3a\u4e86\u4fdd\u62a4\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8d22\u4ea7\u4f1a\u4fc3\u6210\u6c11\u4e3b\u3002\u547c\u5566\u4e00\u4e0b\u6709\u4e86\u53f0\u6e7e\u3001\u97e9\u56fd\u3002\u4f60\u4e3a\u4ec0\u4e48\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u89c4\u5f8b\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u8d70\u4e0d\u901a\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u4f60\u7684\u603b\u7ed3\u975e\u5e38\u51c6\u786e\u3002\u7684\u786e\u6709\u79cd\u8bf4\u6cd5\u662f\uff0c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u53d1\u5c55\u5230\u4e00\u5b9a\u7684\u6c34\u5e73\uff0cinstitutional democratic change just somehow happens\u3002\u7136\u800c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u6c11\u4e3b\u7684\u4ea7\u751f\u8fd8\u9700\u8981\u66f4\u6df1\u7684\u4e1c\u897f\u3002\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u770b\u52301980s\u5728\u53f0\u6e7elifting of martial law\u3002\u3002\u3002\u5728\u6211\u770b\u6765\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u4ece1970\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u6709\uff0cin both of these countries at a much earlier period there was a state society engagement, sort of pre-reform shift that was starting to take place. opposition activists started to go into local legislative bodies and the like&#8230; and created the pre-condition to the change we see and when it happened you see opening and stability.<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u57281900s\u548c2000s\u521d\u671f\uff0c\u4e5f\u8bb8\u8868\u9762\u4e0a\u6709\u6539\u9769\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\uff0c\u5f53\u65f6\u7684\u4e2d\u5171\u9886\u5bfc\u4eba\u7684\u51b3\u5b9a\uff0cquote\u5b5f\u5b50\uff0c\u662f\u63e0\u82d7\u52a9\u957f\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u8bf4\u8bb8\u5fd7\u6c38\uff08\u97f3\uff09\u4ed6\u662f2003\u5e74\u6d77\u6dc0local congress\u3002\u3002\u3002it could have gone a different direction but it didn&#8217;t happen. now it looks to me like China is going a different way.<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1aCarl\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u4e66\u5e76\u4e0d\u957f\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u4f60\u82b1\u4e86\u6574\u6574\u4e00\u7ae0\u8bf4\u5b97\u6559\u3002can you explain that this feature of China&#8217;s authoritarian shift merited that much space? \uff08Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u4f60\u8981\u95ee\u8fd9\u4e2a\u3002\u3002\uff08<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u5f88\u591a\u50cf\u6211\u4eec\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u8005\u6700\u5173\u6ce8politics\uff0claw\uff0cwhat is the most recent documented issue on the politburo\u3002\u3002\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd8\u6709\u6bd4\u8fd9\u66f4\u6df1\u5c42\u6b21\u7684\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u9700\u8981\u770b\u793e\u4f1a\u672c\u8eab\u3002religion and belief\u662f\u6307\u5bfc\u4e00\u4e2a\u793e\u4f1a\u4e2d\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\uff0c\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u89c6\u7684\u529b\u91cf\u3002\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u6211\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u89c9\u5f97\u5fc5\u987b\u5199\u4e00\u5199\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1a\u4f60\u80fd\u4e0d\u80fd\u5177\u4f53\u8bf4\u4e00\u4e9b\u8fd9\u91cc\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u8fd8\u6709\u5173\u4e8e\u5b97\u6559\u7684\u7ba1\u7406\u7b49\u7b49\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u3002\u3002\u3002\u3010\u6ca1\u542c\u61c2<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u5173\u4e8e\u5b97\u6559\uff0c\u6709\u81f3\u5c112\u4e2a\u6982\u5ff5\u9700\u8981\u8003\u8651\u3002\u9996\u5148\u662f\u5b97\u6559\u5728\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u610f\u8bc6\u5f62\u6001\u4e2d\u7684\u4f5c\u7528\u548c\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3002Mao\u65f6\u671f\u4e2d\u5171\u60f3\u8981\u53bb\u9664\u5b97\u6559\u3002\u800c\u6539\u9769\u65f6\u671f\uff0c\u4e2d\u5171\u5bf9\u5b97\u6559\u662f\u4e2d\u7acb\u72b6\u6001\uff0c\u5c0a\u91cd\u5404\u79cd\u5b97\u6559\u4f5b\u6559\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u3002\u53ea\u8981\u4f60\u4eec\u4e0d\u6765\u5f71\u54cd\u4e2d\u5171\u5730\u4f4d\uff0c\u4e0d\u5f71\u54cd\u653f\u6cbb\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u5c31\u4e0d\u6765\u7ba1\u4f60\u3002\u8fd9\u7ed9\u4e86\u5b97\u6559\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u7a7a\u95f4\u3002\u7136\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u4e2d\u5171\u5728\u5f3a\u8c03\u66f4\u52a0\u72ed\u9698\u7684\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u7684\u5b9a\u4e49\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u4ed6\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u91cd\u89c6\u4f5b\u6559\u548c\u5b54\u6559\u3002\u57fa\u7763\u6559\u548c\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u6559\u5ffd\u7136\u5c31\u6709\u88ab\u538b\u5236\u7684\u8ff9\u8c61\u3002\u3002\u3002\u770b\u770b\u7f51\u4e0a\u7684\u53cd\u4f0a\u65af\u5170\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u8ba9\u6211\u4eec\u6765\u8bf4\u8bf4social mobility, \u9ad8\u8003\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4f60\u600e\u4e48\u8bf4\u4e2d\u5171\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u9ad8\u8003\u5bf9\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u662f\u5de8\u5927\u7684\u673a\u4f1a\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u57281980\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u6210\u5e74\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u53ef\u4ee5\u53bb\u9ad8\u8003\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u672a\u6765\u6709\u65e0\u9650\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u4e0d\u7b97\u9ad8\u8003\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u4f60\u662f\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u671f\u4ece\u4e61\u6751\u8fdb\u5165\u57ce\u5e02\u7684\uff0c\u4f60\u7684\u673a\u9047\u4e5f\u662f\u5f88\u591a\u3002\u7136\u800c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u662f\u8fd9\u4e9bmobility\u673a\u4f1a\u5728\u5173\u95ed\u3002\u6bd4\u5982\u9ad8\u6821\u6269\u62db\u540e\uff0c\u6587\u51ed\u7684\u4ef7\u503c\u53d8\u5c0f\u4e86\uff1b\u8d2b\u5bcc\u5dee\u8ddd\u62c9\u5927\u540e\uff0c\u673a\u9047\u5dee\u8ddd\u4e5f\u62c9\u5927\u4e86\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u4ece\u519c\u6751\u79fb\u5c45\u5230\u57ce\u5e02\uff0c\u4f60\u5728\u57ce\u5e02\u4e70\u623f\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff0c\u4f60\u843d\u6237\u57ce\u5e02\u4ee5\u4fbf\u4f60\u7684\u5b69\u5b50\u83b7\u5f97\u6559\u80b2\u7684\u51e0\u7387\u6709\u591a\u5927\uff1fHave\u548chave-not\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5dee\u8ddd\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5927\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ae0\u5199\u5f97\u592a\u597d\u4e86\u3002\u5149\u4e3a\u4e86\u8fd9\u4e00\u7ae0\u5c31\u503c\u5f97\u4e70\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1aCarl, is there any force at all by your reckoning, any force in Chinese society that could possibly nudge the country off the authoritarian path you described?<\/p>\n<p>Carl: this s a tricky question\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u4eba\u95ee\u3002\u3002\u3002I don&#8217;t see any, not in the top&#8230; \u4e0d\u8fc7\u4f60\u603b\u662f\u5f88\u60f3\u7559\u70b9\u5e0c\u671b\u3002\u3002\u3002\uff08Jeremy\uff1agive us some hope, please!\uff09well&#8230;. people are concerned about China independent of the Party. \u5982\u679c\u4eba\u6c11\u770b\u5230\u4e86\u5371\u9669\uff0c\u60f3\u8981\u6539\u53d8\u8fd9\u4e00\u5207\u3002\u8fd9\u4e0d\u662f\u897f\u65b9\u56fd\u5bb6\u5bf9\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8981\u6c42\uff0c\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u5982\u679c\u81ea\u5df1\u610f\u8bc6\u5230\u4e86\u8fd9\u6837\u4e0b\u53bb\u7684\u5371\u9669\u3002\u3002\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u4e0d\u7ba1\u4f1a\u53d1\u751f\u4ec0\u4e48\uff0c\u90fd\u9700\u8981\u4e2d\u56fd\u4eba\u81ea\u5df1\u6765\u63a8\u52a8\uff0c\u56fd\u5bb6\u5b98\u5458\u548c\u6c11\u4f17\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aUnfortunately there is this feedback loop that does not help those people you and I hope exist. \u73b0\u5728\u6211\u5f88\u62c5\u5fc3\u7684\u662f\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d1\u5c55\u52a0\u5f3a\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u5a01\u80c1\u8bba\u3002\u3002\u3002\u5c31\u50cf\u7f8e\u56fd\u5728911\u540e\u5bf9\u7a46\u65af\u6797\u7684\u6001\u5ea6\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u8fd9\u6837\u60f3\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6709\u5e2e\u52a9\uff1a\u7f8e\u56fd\u672c\u8eab\u4e5f\u5728\u7ecf\u5386erosion of political institution. \u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\uff0c\u4f60\u8bf4\u7684\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u662f\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u3002\u800c\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u4e5f\u6709\u7c7b\u4f3c\u7684\u53d8\u5316\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u4e66\u5c31\u662f\u8bf4\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u53d8\u5316\u7684\u3002individual leader might seek to emerge and manipulate that very cheap nationalize, rally around our group, rally around our flag. That&#8217;s going on in both countries. \u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u6709\u7406\u6027\u7684\u4eba\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u8fd9\u4e9b\u95ee\u9898\u3002\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u662f\u5728\u4e2d\u56fd\u56e0\u4e3a\u662f\u96c6\u6743\u56fd\u5bb6\u6240\u4ee5\u662f\u81ea\u4e0a\u800c\u4e0b\u7684erosion\uff0c\u800c\u5728\u7f8e\u56fd\u662f\u81ea\u4e0b\u800c\u4e0a\u7684\u3002there is some similarity that is taking place. Hopefully in both systems you resist the urge to say that the problem is because of them. When in reality, some of the problems are internal.<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u4f5c\u4e3a\u4e00\u4e2a\u4e24\u56fd\u6587\u5316\u7684\u4ea7\u7269\uff0c\u73b0\u5728\u53d1\u73b0\u4e24\u56fd\u90fd\u6709\u8fd9\u4e2a\u95ee\u9898\uff0c\u5176\u5b9e\u5f88sad\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1a\u5bf9\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6211\u4eec\u80fd\u505a\u7684\u5c31\u662fwork to uphold our own liberal democratic ideal.<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aAbsolutely. \u5982\u679c\u6211\u4eec\u7684open liberal democratic pluralist society\u65e0\u6cd5\u5bf9\u4ed8\u4e2d\u56fd\u7684\u8fd9\u79cd\u5f71\u54cd\u800c\u53d8\u5f97\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u72ed\u9698\uff0cwhat the hell are we fighting for.<\/p>\n<p>Jeremy\uff1aCarl\uff0c\u4f60\u8bd5\u56fe\u7ed9\u6211\u4eec\u4e00\u70b9\u5e0c\u671b\u3002\u4f46\u662f\u5176\u5b9e\u4f60\u5e76\u4e0d\u5bf9\u5e0c\u671b\u80f8\u6709\u6210\u7af9\u3002\u90a3\u4f60\u89c9\u5f97\u5b9e\u9645\u4e0a\u672a\u6765\u4f1a\u600e\u6837\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>Carl\uff1aI&#8217;m just worried. \u5404\u79cdtrend line\u770b\u8d77\u6765\u90fd\u5f88\u7cdf\u3002\u6211\u5c31\u6015\u8fd9\u6837\u4e0b\u53bbissues would break forth\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Kaiser\uff1aCarl Minzner\uff0c\u975e\u5e38\u611f\u8c22\u4f60\u8ddf\u6211\u4eec\u804a\u4e86\u4f60\u7684\u975e\u5e38timely\u7684\u4e66\u3002<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>\u4e00\u5c0f\u65f6\u7684\u91c7\u8bbf\uff0c\u6211\u7684\u7b80\u7565\u8bb0\u5f55\u82b1\u4e86\u8d77\u78014\u5c0f\u65f6\u3002\u3002\u3002\u56e0\u4e3a\u592a\u559c\u6b22\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u548c\u5609\u5bbe\u7684\u8bdd\u3002\u6709\u65f6\u5019\u89c9\u5f97\u5149\u5199\u603b\u7ed3\u4e0d\u591f\u4fe1\u670d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u7ec6\u8282\u4f8b\u5b50\u4e5f\u5f88\u91cd\u8981\u3002\u751a\u81f3\u600e\u4e48\u8bb2\u8bdd\u7684\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u4e5f\u6709\u610f\u4e49\u3002\u4e5f\u8bb8\u6bd4\u6211\u66f4\u719f\u6089\u8fd9\u4e9b\u8bdd\u9898\u7684\u4eba\u53ea\u9700\u8981\u8bfb\u603b\u7ed3\u5c31\u884c\u4e86\u3002\u540c\u65f6\u5927\u6982\u4f1a\u4e70\u4e66\u6765\u770b\u3002\uff08\u4e0a\u5468\u5df2\u7ecf\u4e70\u4e86The China Questions\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u611f\u89c9\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u66f4\u503c\u5f97\u8bfb\u3002\u3002\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5bf9\u6211\u6765\u8bf4\u8fd9\u4e2a\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684highlight\u6709\u4e24\u4e2a\u3002\u4e00\u662f1989\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\uff0c\u5f7b\u5e95\u6539\u9769\u7684option\u5c31\u6ca1\u4e86\u3002\u63a5\u4e0b\u6765\u8981\u505a\u4ec0\u4e48\u66f4\u5f7b\u5e95\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u5c31\u662f\u548c1989\u5e74\u62b5\u89e6\u3002\u6211\u548c\u4e3b\u6301\u4eba\u4e00\u6837\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u56e0\u4e3a\u662f\u6e29\u6c34\u9752\u86d9\uff0c\u611f\u89c9\u5230\u4e0d\u5bf9\u5934\u7684\u65f6\u95f4\u66f4\u665a\uff08\u56e0\u6b64\u597d\u50cf\u7279\u522b\u602aXi\uff09\u3002\u53e6\u5916\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u5e73\u53cd\u4e5f\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u5168\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e8c\u662f\u4ee5\u524d\u4e00\u76f4vaguely\u89c9\u5f97\u7ecf\u6d4e\u589e\u957f\u540e\u4f1a\u53d8\u5f00\u660e\uff08\u5e76\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u53f0\u6e7e\u548c\u97e9\u56fd\u5c31\u662f\u8fd9\u6837\uff09\uff0c\u4f46\u4f5c\u8005\u89c9\u5f97\u4e2d\u56fd\u60c5\u51b5\u4e0d\u4e00\u6837\u3002\u6211\u66fe\u7ecf\u89c9\u5f97\u6ca1\u60f3\u5230\u73b0\u5728\u4f1a\u8d8a\u6765\u8d8a\u5dee\u3002\u6839\u636e\u4f5c\u8005\u8bf4\u7684\uff0c\u6211\u4eec\u66fe\u7ecf\u7684\u4e50\u89c2\u4e5f\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u53ef\u9760\u4f9d\u636e\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u4e0d\u662f\u5b8c\u6574\u7684transcription \/ \u7ffb\u8bd1\u3002\uff08\u4e4b\u524d\u8bd5\u56fetranscribe 19\u5927\u90a3\u4e00\u96c6\uff0c\u542c\u5199\u6bd4\u6211\u60f3\u7684\u8981\u7d2f\u597d\u591a\u554a\u3002\u8ffd\u6c42\u5b8c\u6574\u4e0d\u5982\u53bb\u7814\u7a76\u4e00\u4e0b\u8fd9\u65b9\u9762\u7684app\uff1f\uff09\u5c31\u662f\u542c\u7684\u65f6\u5019\u89c9\u5f97\u918d\u9190\u704c\u9876\u6240\u4ee5\u8bb0\u5f55\u4e00\u4e0b\u5427\u3002 \u5609\u5bbeCarl Minzner\u6700\u8fd1\u51fa\u7248\u4e86\u4e00\u672c\u4e66 End of an Era: How China&#8217; Authoritarian Revival Is Undermining Its Rise. \uff08\u770b\u4e86\u4e00\u4e0bAmazon\uff0c\u4e66\u662f2\u67081\u65e5\u51fa\u7248\u7684\u3002\u4e0a\u5468\u65e5\u7684\u65b0\u95fb\u7b80\u76f4\u662f\u7ed9\u8fd9\u672c\u4e66\u9020\u52bf\uff08 \u3002\u3002\u3002 Kaiser\uff1a\u4f60\u4ece\u6cd5\u5f8b\u6559\u6388\u5230\u5199\u5173\u4e8e\u653f\u6cbb\u7684\u4e66\uff0c\u662f\u5df2\u7ecf\u60f3\u4e86\u5f88\u591a\u5e74\uff1f Carl\uff1a\u60f3\u4e86\u5341\u5230\u5341\u4e94\u5e74\u5427\u3002\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u975e\u5e38specific\u7684\u6cd5\u5f8b\u95ee\u9898\u7684\u65f6\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u4e5f\u6ce8\u610f\u5230\u4e86\u4e2d\u56fd\u793e\u4f1a\u7684norm\u662f\u4ec0\u4e48\u6837\u7684\uff0c\u8ba9\u6211\u5ef6\u4f38\u5230\u5f53\u524d\u95ee\u9898\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u653f\u6cbb\u5386\u53f2\u6e0a\u6e90\u3002 Kaiser\uff1a\u6211\u8fd9\u4e48\u95ee\u662f\u56e0\u4e3a\uff0c\u597d\u591a\u88ab\u6211\u4eec\u91c7\u8bbf\u7684\u5609\u5bbe\uff0c\u5bf9\u5982\u4eca\u7684illiberal turn\u4ec0\u4e48\u65f6\u5019\u5f00\u59cb\u7684\uff0c\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u540c\u610f\u90a3\u4e2a\u65f6\u95f4\u70b9\u662f2008\u52302009\u5e74\u5de6\u53f3\u3002\u80e1\u9526\u6d9b\u7684\u65f6\u671f\u6211\u4eec\u5f00\u59cb\u770b\u5230vicious crack down on human rights lawyers, big waves of tightening internet, \u5b5f\u5efa\u67f1\u5f00\u59cb\u8bf4\u7f51\u7edc\u4e0a\u6709\u5916\u56fd\u654c\u5bf9\u52bf\u529b\u7b49\u7b49\u3002\u3002\u3002\u7136\u800c\u4f60\u8ba4\u4e3a\u4ece1989\u5e74\u5f00\u59cb\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u51fa\u8fd9\u4e2a\u8d70\u5411\u3002\u3002\u3002 Carl\uff1aI would say there were several crucial inflection points. \uff08\u62d0\u70b9\uff0c\u5b66\u5230\u4e86\u65b0\u8bcd\uff091989\u5e74\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\uff0c2003\u4e5f\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u62d0\u70b9\u3002\u5f53\u5c40\u5173\u6ce8public interest lawyers\uff0c\u6211\u89c9\u5f97\u65e9\u57282005\u30012006\u5e74\u5c31\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5f97\u51fa\u4e86\u3002 Carl\uff1a\u6211\u8ba4\u4e3a1989\u5e74\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u7684\u4e00\u4e2a\u62d0\u70b9\u3002\u81ea\u90a3\u4e4b\u540e\uff0cdeeper political, institutional reform is taken off [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[262],"tags":[268],"class_list":["post-1416","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-262","tag-sinica-podcast"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1416","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=1416"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1416\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1421,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1416\/revisions\/1421"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=1416"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=1416"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.miahavero.me\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=1416"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}